Say you worked for a company and were put in charge of purchasing a company car.  You were told to splurge a little and get one of the best damn cars out on the market.  You then proceed to drop, say, $126,000 on a top line Maserati.

Then the Maserati starts to break down.  After a year, the car won’t even run anymore.  It’s simply parked in the company garage, occasionally used to the boss can bang his secretary in the back seat, but never driven.  Your company still owes about $112,000 on the car, but want so badly to unload it, that they will listen to any offers for it.

There happens to be one company so STARVED for cars that they offer to take the car off your hands, but will only pay about $30,000 on the remaining loan.  The rest is up to your company.

So there you are, contemplating spending around $80k on a car that nobody in your company will ever benefit from again.  Essentially, flushing $80k down the toilet just to free up the parking spot.

Being the person who negotiated the deal for the car in the first place, do you think you would still have your job?  No?  What about if you multiplied all the above figures by 1,000?  Think you’d avoid criminal prosecution?

OK, enough with the damn metaphor.  According to Jayson Stark and his superfluous “Y,” a pitching starved team has offered to take Zito off our hands if the Giants will pick up $80 mil of the $112 mil still owed on his contract.

That presents the following questions:

Should the Giants just cut bait and sell on Zito, knowing that his value really couldn’t get any lower?

Should the Giants try to hold on, hoping that Zito can rebound slightly and be unloaded for a little better deal down the line?

Why, exactly, is Brian Sabean even allowed to make that decision when it was his move to sign Zito in the first place?!?

Is $20mil a year really too much to be paying for a LOOGY guy who can’t even get lefties out?

Some concepts in the world get examined by humans, tested and then logical conclusions can be reached.  The ground shakes because giant plates of rock are moving under the earth’s surface.  Smoking give you lung cancer.  Ingesting too much cholesterol increases your risk for a heart attack.  These things have been shown by the formulation of hypotheses, collection of data and analysis of results.  In short, these things have been proven so as to be stated as fact by a vast majority of humans.

Now, there are also concepts that have been similarly proven, but, because they go against some people’s core beliefs, are still hotly contested.  The earth IS getting warmer because of all the carbon we are pumping into the atmosphere.  Homo Sapiens DID evolve from an ape-like ancestor.  Regularly letting a pitcher throw over 100 pitches per start WILL exponentially increase his chance of injury.  You can argue these points using emotions, but you simply can’t argue them using facts.

Ask Cubs fans how the abuse of Kerry Wood and Mark Prior at the hands of Dusty Baker worked out.  See how Jerome Williams arm feels after being molested by Felipe Alou.  Remember Jesus Sanchez?  Didn’t think so.

So why is Bruce Bochy being allowed to ruin Tim Lincecum, and to a lesser extent, Matt Cain?  I don’t care that Tim is a freak of nature that never ices his arm.  I don’t care that one of Matt Cain’s thighs is thicker than my entire body.  These two guys may never get injured, but why take the chance?  That would be like a kid smoking cigarettes and saying he just doesn’t think he’ll get lung cancer.  He may be right, but the consequences are pretty severe if he’s wrong.

I love Mike Krukow.  I think he’s one of the best color commentators in the game.  He’s witty and has a lot of insider knowledge that actually does illuminate the game.  However, he does have his obvious biases.  While Timmy’s rotator cuff was flirting with disaster the other night, Krukow pointed out how he hates the 100 pitch limit.  Well, Kruk, some people hate the fact that we all evolved from an ape-like ancestor, but that doesn’t make it untrue.

There is a statistic called Pitcher Abuse Points that measures how much abuse a pitcher is withstanding just in terms of pitch counts.  This year, Tim Lincecum ranks 2nd in all of baseball.

Think about that.

Our prized young arm, our franchise player, our freak of a god-child who was too good to let go for Alex Rios is the second most abused pitcher in all of baseball.  That is just criminal.

Oh, and the Pitcher Abuse Points don’t take into account our favorite rain-delay mishap where Timmy resumed pitching after a 1+ hour rain delay.  If there were some PAP modifier to account for that, Timmy would certainly rank #1.  Words cannot express my frustration and anger.  I want to watch Tim Lincecum pitch for the Giants for a long time.  I don’t want to see him go the way of the Foppert.

I hope, against all logic and science, that our ice caps aren’t going to melt and San Francisco will stay above water for the next few centuries.  I hope that none of my smoker friends get lung cancer.  I hope that Timmy’s arm stays strong and he freaks himself all the way into the Hall of Fame.  His statue will loom large outside the Tim Lincecum portwalk and the World Series banners will fly high above the stadium.

But if his arm does go the way of Prior, Wood and all the others, then let the rioting begin.

Bruce Bochy, the Giants marketing staff, Brian Sabean and bay area journalists keep insisting on using the words “gamer” and all the hyperbole that goes with “gamerness” over and over again.  As a comment on this site pointed out, this is the age of sabermetrics.  The fact that nobody in the entire organization has any idea how to evaluate hitting is painfully evident if we look at sabermetrics.  Take, for instance, our old friend, VORP.

For a perfect example of how well calculated my favorite stat is, we can look at Jose Castillo.  VORP is supposed to calculate how many more runs a player has contributed to his team when compared to the average MLB castoff or AAA callup, the so-called “replacement player.”  Jose Castillo is just one such replacement player.  Jose Castillo has a VORP of zero.  That, ladies and gentlemen, is just too perfect.

Out of the top 10 Giants in plate appearances, only three have a non-negative VORP.  That means, only three of the Giants with the 10 most trips up to home plate have actually helped the team more than any MLB castoff or random AAA callup would be expected to help.  How obvious is it that neither Bochy nor Sabean can run a team when Rich Aurilia is #5 in plate appearances and LAST on the team in VORP?

After 11 plate appearances, John Bowker is leading the Giants in VORP.

EE-LEV-IN plate appearances!

Out of he top 10 Giants in VORP, four are PITCHERS!  Matt Cain ranks THIRD on the team!  Tim Lincecum, all 115 lbs of him, ranks fifth.  Jose Castillo ranks 10th with a VORP of ZERO!

John Bowker’s team leadin VORP of 6.2 is good enough for 33rd in MLB.  The next Giant, Fred Lewis, is 56th.  The only reason either of these guys are even getting playing time is because Dave Roberts caught a bout of syphilis from one of his ass-rape buddies in the Giants front office.

Guys ahead of the best Giants hitter are Gabe Kapler, Luke Scott, Yunel Escobar, Xavier Nady, Ryan Ludwick, Christian Guzman and Angel Pagan.  You’re telling me that Brian Sabean couldn’t pick up anyone along those lines in the last four years to play first, second or third base?

What’s even better: had Dave Roberts not gone down with injury AND Clay Timpner not looked so overmatched AND Aaron Rowand bruised his ribs, we would never have even HAD John Bowker on the club.

Baseball is supposed to be a meritocracy.  The people who prove they are good at their job get to keep their job.  Be it hitting at above replacement level or building a team that can win more than 62 games, if you can’t cut it, you’re out.  Instead, the Giants are run as if the size of your paycheck determines your playing ability, not the other way around.  Rich Aurilia is making $6million?  He must be good enough to start every day.  Ray Durham can afford to buy Maseratis just to drive them into the bay?  He should get most of the playing time.  Randy Winn can buy and sell 90% of Californians at will?  Make sure he gets his fair share of at-bats.  Forget the fact that Dan Ortmeier, Eugenio Velez and John Bowker have much higher upsides and are more fun to watch.

So, say YOU have a $400million organization.  Would you let it be run so poorly?

The Giants have been shoving this “Gamer” and “hard-nosed” shit down our throats for a couple of months now.  So, who do we think fits the bill?

Gamers:

Bengie Molina.  Hits walkoff homers.  Gets his uniform dirty while squatting in the dirt.  Also, loses to glaciers in a foot race.  Gamers move like continental drift.

Aaron Rowand.  Bruises his ribs diving for a ball.  Who cares that it puts him out for a few days? The Giants are paying $60million for him to hurt himself on a meaningless play and then not be in the lineup for a few days and then post a .678 OPS when he is in.

Ray Durham.  Can’t field.  Gamers have hands of brick from playing so hard-nosed all the time.

Randy Winn.  100% stolen base success rate this year.  .298 slugging percentage.  Gamers don’t “slug,”  they “game.”

Barry Zito.  $126million makes anyone a gamer.

Jose Castillo.  Just like Pedro Feliz except for less power and a worse glove.  Feliz was 100% gamer.  Castillo is like 82%.  He’s a “B-” Feliz.

Non-Gamers:

John Bowker.  Gamers don’t care about meaningless stats like “homers” or “OPS.”

Matt Cain.  Gamers win ballgames.  Matt Cain doesn’t have a win on the year.  Not a gamer.

Merkin Valdez.  Gamers don’t have names that are synonyms for pubic wigs.

Tyler Walker.  Gamers aren’t from Marin county.  Unless you’re Barry Zito.

Walkoff homers will be rare this year.  I’m glad I actually got to be at the game last night.

However, today I just feel depressed and dirty.  First off, I managed to spend over $200 yesterday, and I didn’t even pay for my ticket!  After a few purchases at the Dugout Store, two Sheboygans and three beers, I realized I had just payed for Aaron Rowand’s bunt attempt.  I really wish www.firebochy.com had been transferred to Giants fans’ hands after Bochy left San Diego.

Then there was the inexplicable “Gen” that kept popping up on the scoreboard after each replay or video clip.  My friend finally pointed out that it stood for “Giants Entertainment Network” and we promptly entered a discussion on the mis-capitalization of acronyms.  Once again, proof that everything in this organization is run by people who couldn’t graduate from middle school.

Which leads us to our next point:  do the Giants really need seven people on the roster who can play in the outfield?  With Dave Roberts going on the DL, the Giants decided to bring up another outfielder, Clay Timpner.  After Sabean realized the Giants organization was short on outfielders this offseason and signed Aaron Rowand, he’s kinda been on an outfielder binge.  However, the two young outfielders with the most upside in the organization aren’t getting much of a look.  Fred Lewis is being treated like a guy who will become a lefty bat off the bench in a Mark Sweeney type mold and Nate Schierholtz is languishing at Fresno.  Good thing we’re paying Aaron Rowand $60million to bunt (last reference to the insane bunt?  I think not).

Then we come to our 1B situation.  We were told all offseason that it was gonna be Dan Ortmeier.  Then Ort has a crappy spring and it’s Rich Aurilia.  Rich can’t hit, but still gets to start because he’s overpaid.  Ort can’t hit, but somehow wins the LF job over Davis, Lewis & Schierholtz.  So what we’re left with is an overpaid 1B who can’t hit and a LF who also can’t hit and is blocking three other, more talented, players.

So, all that comes down to a game of “Pick Your Johnson,” and no, it’s not as dirty as it sounds.  The Giants are looking at a pair of Johnsons to fill the hole at 1B.  Okay, it is starting to sound dirty, but I promise, it’s not.  One Johnson currently resides in Washington, DC and is signed through next season at $11million a year, which is probably $6-7million more than he should be getting.  This Johnson is actually a decent hitter, posting excellent OBP (which the Giants severely lack) and he plays a good first base.  Washington also happens to have two good 1B, thus causing Brian Sabean to eye this particular Johnson.  The downside to this Johnson is that he will probably walk after 2009 after taking about $20million from the pockets of Peter Magowan and co.  Oh, and the Giants will have to give up something of value to obtain this Johnson.  The other Johnson, however, just got DFA’d by Oakland and could probably be had for next to nothing.  Johnson #2 isn’t as good as a hitter as Johnson #1, but the potential was there at one time, and could return.  Johnson #2 is more in the Jose Castillo mold, a once promising player who saw his stock fall enough that a really bad team would release him.

So what would happen if Sabean actually picked a Johnson to play first base?  Odds on the next move are as follows:

Sabean sends down Brian Bocock, hoping Aurilia still knows how to play SS.  Because, really, the Giants need those 7 potential outfielders.  2:1

Sabean releases Dan Ortmeier.  That lousy spring and sub-par April mean this kid will NEVER hit.  He’ll only take playing time away from Rich Aurilia and Randy Winn.  4:1

Sabean sends down Eugenio Velez.  Not a Gamer, too skinny.  Plus, although he can play in the outfield, he can also cover 2B.  Can’t have that.  20:1

Sabean releases Rich Aurilia.  It’s the most difficult move of Sabean’s career.  He cries for weeks and enters a deep depression, eventually taking is own life.  100:1

Sabean actually manages to trade Dave Roberts, Randy Winn & Rich Aurilia to Oakland/Washington for one of the Johnsons.  The other team also picks up all the remaining salary.  Nate Schierholtz & Fred Lewis play every day.  China frees Tibet.  Iran stops its uranium enrichment.  Bill O’Reilly admits he’s a moron and resigns in shame.  There is world peace and children are dancing in the streets.  50,000,000,000:1

Matt Cain’s first start of the year: 113 pitches.

Tim Lincecum’s first start: Scratched due to rain delay possibility, then allow him to come in as relief.  Rain delay comes, allow Lincecum to pitch after delay.

Bruce Bochy is actively trying to destroy the only two assets the Giants have.

Can we riot yet?

So, after watching what approximated a baseball game today, here are my bold predictions for the season:

The 49ers will win more games in 2008 than the Giants.

Brian Bocock will never get a major league hit.

The season is only 6 months long, but it will seem like 60 months of torture.

Matt Cain will lead the team in homers.

Keiichi Yabu, Steve Holm, Brian Bocock, Erik Threets, Rajai Davis, Nate Schierholtz: names that won’t be on the roster in August.

Dave Roberts, Barry Zito, Ray Durham, Randy Winn, Rich Aurilia, Omar Vizquel, Jose Castillo: names that will still be on the roster in August.

Matt Cain will lead the team in assassination attempts on Brian Sabean.

Giants will average zero runs per game in 2008 (scoring negative runs at times).

Fewer than 100 fans will show up for the Pirates-Giants series at AT&T park in September.

The Tampa Bay Rays will sign Barry Bonds and win the World Series.

BOLD! 

The people present the following comparisons:

Ray Durham, Aaron Rowand, Dave Roberts & Randy Winn

The combined projected totals for these five guys are a line of .278/.334/.411, 35 homers and a total of 60.4 VORP in 1709 plate appearances. All this costing the Giants $34,000,000 next season (plus more seasons on the books for Winn, Roberts & Rowand).

Now lets look at Kevin Frandsen, Rajai Davis, Fred Lewis & Nate Schierholtz

Combined projected totals of .276/.324/.404 with 40 homers and a 39.4 VORP in 1625 plate appearances. All that costing the Giants a whopping $1,600,000 next season with full financial flexibility on every player the year after. Plus, take away the 1709 plate appearances from the first group, give it to the second and you can practically double the totals, giving about 80 homers and 80 VORP for $1.6 million. So that’s basically $32.4 million dollars flushed down the toilet.

Would a team running out the second group of players rather than the first really be equally as good? Probably not. Given that the Giants are projected to win about 65 games next year with both groups combined, running the second group out every day might decrease that win total to about 64. Oh, but you would be saving $32.4 million in 2008 and $26.75 million in 2009. That $60 million+ over the next two seasons would be more than enough to sign some players that might actually make an impact. How would your employer treat you if you squandered $60 million?

To quote the latest Baseball Prospectus book:

Winn, Roberts & Rowand are all taking playing time from Lewis and Davis, inexpensive players who are broadly comparable, potentially better and tens of millions of dollars cheaper. The Giants have made decisions like that all across the roster, while feeding the idea that it was Barry Bonds’ $16 million - a bargain in both theoretical and real terms - standing in the way of their plans. No franchise has wasted more money on marginal upgrades. This is a diseased organization that needs a complete overhaul and thorough cleansing, from the owner’s box on down.

Now I won’t go as far as to blame Magowan. He gets an eternal free pass in my book, since if it wasn’t for him, there wouldn’t even BE a San Francisco Giants. However, as each day brings the abysmal 2008 season closer, I grow progressively dismayed at the current status of the team that I love so dear. Not only that, I look back at the past decade and see the career of the best player ever to play the game wasted by an incompetent general manager, three different buffoons as managers and an organization that doesn’t seem to care.

The moves that weren’t made are almost as discouraging as the ones that were made. The reluctance to sign Vlad Guerrero, instead going after a slough of second rate talent. The reluctance to trade for Derrek Lee when he was being shopped by the Marlins. Passing up a Lowry for Milledge deal. The mishandling of Jonathan Sanchez’s career. Not trading Jason Schmidt at the ‘05 trade deadline when, apparently, the Red Sox were dangling Hanley Ramirez.

Instead, Sabean has thrown away millions of dollars. More than just the money shown in the last few posts. He has put the franchise in a state that will surely waste the careers of Tim Lincecum & Matt Cain as well. The Giants are stuck with bad contracts beyond just 2009. Rowand is signed until 2012, Zito until 2013. Cain will be looking for a team that can give him run support after 2011. Lincecum will most likely be following suit the year after. This is not a rebuilding process. This is criminal negligence.

I’m completely addicted to Baseball Prospectus.  Today, I’ve been looking at their PECOTA projected standings for the 2008 season.

Like any reasonable person, computer or rock, they’ve predicted the Giants to finish in last place in the NL West.  They’ve also predicted them to finish in last place in the National League and second to last in all of baseball (only the lowly Orioles are worse).

Then the projections get REALLY fun.  The PECOTA Giants manage to finish in last place in the NL while giving up the third fewest runs in the league, with only the Dodgers & Padres giving up fewer.  They also score 38 fewer runs than any other team in baseball.  The team slugging percentage is projected to be at .384.  That’s right, they’re projected to slug under .400 as a team.  That means the entire team will hit with about as much power as this guy.

Over/under on number of splash hits from Giant hitters this year: 1.5

The team also projects to a .317 on base percentage.  Yes, that means they’re going to make outs close to 7 out of every ten plate appearances.  That’s going to lead to some quick innings and quick games.  I can just see Greg Maddux going 9 innings on 45 pitches.

So here’s to hoping the Giants actually do worse than their projected record.  Maybe that’s the only way Brian Sabean can finally be fired.

Sometimes I’m a little bit hard on Brian Sabean.  I mean, who’s to say it’s his fault the Giants are in such a sorry state right now?  It’s not like he actually runs the team, and has done so for the last decade…

oh

OK, Sabean deserves to be scrutinized to bring his utter incompetence to light.  Once such incompetence is brought to light, Sabean needs to be banned from being within 50 yards of a baseball team ever again.

In the case of the people of San Francisco & the greater Bay Area vs. Brian Sabean, the people submit exhibit A:  Brian Sabean was offered a trade of Lastings Milledge for Noah Lowry straight up in November, before the Mets sent Milledge to Washington and before Sabean had signed Aaron Rowand.   This trade, had it occurred, would have meant the Giants could have passed on the Rowand sweepstakes, saving $60 million over the next five years to put towards a Teixeria or Dunn like investment.  Also, I will cite Rowand’s projection for next year: .279/.337/.444 for a 23.4 VORP and 4.3 wins above replacement.  Milledge, on the other hand, is only projected to hit .289/.358/.478 with 15 steals for a 22.2 VORP and 3.7 wins above replacement.  His rate numbers are actually significantly better than Rowand’s and his VORP and wins only project lower because he projects to only get 338 at bats with the Nationals.  A full season in San Francisco could get a player with 25 homers, 35 doubles & 25 steals, which looks a lot better than Rowand’s 15 homers, 30 doubles and 8 steals.  Oh, and then Lowry would be the Mets’ problem and, again, we’d have the cash to bid aggressively for Teixeria and Dunn during the offseason.

The people will now submit exhibit B.   This exhibit is a little old, but new statistics have come to light allowing it to be fully appreciated.  In 2004, Brian Sabean signed Michael Tucker one day before the arbitration deadline, hence giving the Giants’ first round draft pick to the Kansas City Royals.  It was well known that the Royals would not be offering Tucker arbitration, so waiting a day would have allowed the Giants to keep said draft pick.  Sabean said that the money used to sign Tucker was just the money that the Giants would have used to sign the aforementioned first round pick, so the deal was really a wash anyway.

However, money spent in the free agent market is subject to much worse returns than money spent on player development and draft picks.  Purchasing one marginal win in the free agent market costs about $4.4 million dollars, according to the latest Hardball Times Annual.  Players still available when the Royals’ bonus pick came up included Huston Street and Gio Gonzalez (who was a centerpiece in the Swisher trade this offseason and a candidate to be in the A’s rotation this year).  The Hardball times assumes that a player taken in the latter part of the first round of the draft will save a team at least $10 million over what that same production would cost on the free agent market.  A player like Street would have provided much more than that, possibly preventing the Giants from signing Armando Benitez.

The people have provided compelling evidence to suggest that Brian Sabean cannot evaluate talent and has a complete lack of understanding of the economics of baseball.  His over-reliance on overpaid veterans has shifted funds away from player development, thus costing the San Francisco Giants organization millions of dollars.  His continued unwillingness to even entertain the existence of a productive non-Caincecum player under the age of 25 has robbed the Giants’ of countless potential.  While other teams have showered in the fruits of Sabeans misguided ways, lavishing in the Nathan’s and Liriano’s of the baseball world, the Giants are still seemingly doomed to a lifetime of Robertses, Rowands, Molinas and Durhams.  Even now, with the thought of a 100 loss season being very real, Sabean refuses to give due diligence to the potential of Schierholtz, Davis, Lewis, Sanchez, Frandsen, Denker, Bowker and countless other non-prospects in the Giants depleted wasteland of a farm system.

Thus, the people call for the immediate termination of Brian Sabean, followed by a punishment seen fit by this court.  We recommend having to fight Armando Benitez in a bout of nude peanut-butter wrestling.